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A Mixed Year for Asian Residential Property in 2006, According to Global Property Guide

The winners: Singapore, South Korea and the Philippines

Singapore experienced Asia’s highest residential property price increases during 2006, with 9.5% real (inflation-adjusted) house price rises.

There were also 9.3% real house price increases in South Korea, and 9.1% real house price increases in the Philippines. These were seen in the Global Property Guide House Price Indices, the biggest collection of residential property price indices.

Singapore’s strong 2006 GDP growth rate, at 7.9%, pushed up demand for Singapore property. The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) private residential property price index rose by 10% (9.5% in real terms) in 2006.

South Korea also saw a strong rebound in property prices, despite continued efforts by the government to depress the market. The Kookmin Bank’s house price index rose 11.6% in Dec. 2006 (9.3% in real terms) from a year earlier.

In the Philippines, strong economic growth and reduced inflation contributed to the continued recovery of the real estate sector. In addition, demand from Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs) and dual citizens has been strong, pushing prices up. Luxury condominium prices in the Philippines rose 15% (9% in real terms) in 2006, following an 11% nominal price rise in 2005, according to Colliers International.

Japan and Hong Kong are laggards

Japan’s residential property market continued to fall in 2006, despite repeated attempts by the media to portray the market as rallying. Nevertheless, the residential urban land price index registered a smaller fall in 2006 (-2.8%) compared to last year (-4.7%).

Hong Kong’s property market turned negative (-2.13%) in 2006, after impressive gains in 2004 (27%) and 2005 (8%). Higher interest rates in the US, mirrored directly in Hong Kong, were a major cause of the downturn.

Taiwan’s messy political crisis seems to have frozen residential prices, with 0% appreciation during 2006. In real terms, Taiwan experienced a decline in house prices during 2006 (-1.7%). During three years prior to the second quarter of 2006, Taiwan’s Sinyi house price index rose 17%.

In Malaysia, house prices did not to keep pace with inflation. Malaysian house prices today are at the same level as 1995, in real terms.

Thailand saw the end of ending its strong post-Asian crisis property market recovery, as the political crisis impacted the economy. House prices moved up just 1.9% in 2006 (-2.4% in real terms), after 2005’s price increase of 7% (1.5% in real terms), and 2004’s rise of 9% (6% in real terms).

Indonesia managed to reduce 4Q 2006 inflation to 6% from 16% during the first three quarters. With the house price index registering a 6.6% increase in 2006; house prices rose by 0.5% in real terms.

The 2007 elections – risks abound

2007 is an election year in Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines, and political uncertainty is likely to increase. There will also be elections in Japan and Hong Kong, but they are unlikely to have much impact on the real estate market. In Thailand, uncertainty will increase if elections are not called.

The Philippines. A victory for President Arroyo’s party in the upcoming Congressional elections would be positive for real estate. Election years in the Philippines bring money inflows, but also increased uncertainty. But if Arroyo wins enough seats in Congress she will push constitutional change, removing constitutional limits on foreign ownership of real estate and companies – good for real estate.

South Korea. The economic interventionism of left-of-center President Roh Moo-hyun has been damaging for Korea’s housing market. His support is crumbling, and a less interventionist president may be elected in December. But even if the opposition Grand National Party wins, excessive government intervention in the housing market has a very long history in South Korea.

Taiwan. Parliamentary elections at end-2007 will provide a strong lead on whether the Kuomintang (KMT) can regain control of the presidency in 2008 from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). President Chen Shui-bian’s two terms have largely been spent on keeping him from being ousted. Significant banking and tax reforms have been held hostage by politics.

Japan. Half of the seats in the upper house will be contested in July. Seats held by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) may be reduced, risking its reform agenda. These seats were won with the help of former prime minister and popular reformist Junichiro Koizumi.

Hong Kong. Donald Tsang is up for re-election as chief executive where elections are still largely ceremonial and Beijing’s anointment is the only significant factor. Pro-democracy campaigners are hoping and pushing for reforms to full democracy and Mr. Tsang’s failure to push for constitutional reforms in 2005 means that this will be his last term.

Thailand. The sooner elections are called, and Thailand is returned to democracy, the better it will be for the property market and the economy as a whole. The fate of Thailand’s property market hinges on the junta. If the junta prolongs military rule, the market will suffer.

The Global Property Guide sees inflation risks to be minimal in Asia in 2006. But other risks threaten the real estate market, particularly the re-emergence of bird flu in several countries, Indonesia in particular.

About the Author

The Global Property Guide is a research publication and web site (www.globalpropertyguide.com) for the high net worth investor in residential property.

Went to a nightclub, saw a blind person dancing with a guide dog, it was very noisy and packed is this right?

I know that blind people should have the same rights as everyone else, but it made me wonder where do the person's rights end and the dog's rights start?
I did tell the person that it didn't seem an appropriate place for a dog, she got angry at me. Then I felt real bad and I apologised for passing judgement, but later on It made me wonder about the welfare of the dog?? would it have been animal cruelty if it was just a regular dog?
Thanks to all of you who have contributed, as a non vision impaired person, I think it's important that we all have this information. It has definetely helped me to have a better understanding of vision impaired people and the hurdles they face on a daily basis. p.s.: I do think that all animals have rights, just like people.

It all depends on the dog. Some are fine under those conditions and some aren't. It is more likely that a guide would be fine than a typical dog because they are specifically selected for calm, confident, unflapable temperaments. They are selected for their ability to tolerate stress, just like an air traffic controller. Some have it, some don't.

I do a lot of things with my service dog that I'd never dream of doing with a pet because it doesn't stress him but it would most pets. A properly trained handler is going to constantly be aware of their dog's condition. On the rare occasion when my dog has become stressed, I've done something about it, even if it means leaving. I am responsible for his safety, his comfort and his well-being.

Odd that you ask this, but I have actually taken my dog dancing, though it was at a social gathering at a hall rather than a night club. We didn't dance for long (not even a whole song) because it was too awkward for both of us. But what-the-hey we'd never tried it before and we did try it, and learned it wasn't for us. So we sat and watched and I chatted with people at the tables instead. My dog is more sensitive to loud music than I am, and this factors in on some activities. I'd never take him to a rock concert, for example.

In short, the handler is responsible for the stewardship of the dog. It's my job to make sure he has all the breaks he needs, that he has snacks and meals as needed, access to water, opportunities to toilet, opportunities to stretch or nap. It's my job to protect him from idiots who think it is fun to kick service dogs (yes they exist) and from loose pets that attack. I have a considerable scar on my arm from shielding one of my dogs from an attack, but she walked away without a mark on her.

Just as there are good parents and bad, good politicians and bad, and good and bad bus drivers, so are there good and bad service/guide dog handlers. All dogs, especially working dogs, deserve only the good kind. If you suspect a service/guide dog is being mistreated, take note of the dog's program and report it to them. Seeing Eye dogs, for example, have a plate attached to their harnesses stating they are from the Seeing Eye. If the dog isn't marked with the program's name, casual inquiry about what organization the dog is from and the dog's name would give you all you needed to report suspected abuse to the program and let them investigate and deal with it.

Honestly, the vast majority of service/guide dog owners care deeply for their dogs and take excellent care of them, just as most pet owners do.

edited to add:

I get asked all sorts of general things about my dog, like his name, breed, where I got him, etc. Sometimes I'm busy and say so instead of answering. But these questions don't actually offend me like suggesting I'm mistreating my dog would.

Speaking of which, I was accused once of starving my dog by a woman on a bus who spent the rest of the trip muttering about wishing she could buy my dog some Milkbones. Well, my dog is and always has been at his ideal weight. His vet agrees. It's just that the average pet dog tends to be overweight so people aren't used to seeing a lean working dog. Anyway, I didn't bother saying it out loud, but my dog hates Milkbones. He just flings them on the floor with disdain. It was funny, but at the same time it hurt, to think that someone was accusing me of mistreating him.